San Diego State vs UCONN

7:39 CBS | TD Garden

5-Unit bet on SDST plus 10.5 points and is valid to 9.5 points.

Starting with the Sweet 16 Round and through the Final Four pair of games, dogs, that allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game have gone an amazing 20-27 SU and 33-14 ATS good for 70% winning bets since 2013.

The following NCAA betting algorithm has earned a 3-34 SU and 25-12 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on underdogs between 10 and 19.5 points.

·       The favorite has covered the spread in 6 or more of their last 8 games.

·       The favorite has won 80% or more of their games.

·       The game takes place after game number 25.

Overview:

UCONN (33-3) is the defending national champion and aims to win back-to-back titles.

San Diego State (26-10) seeks redemption after losing to UCONN in last year’s national title game.

Key Players to Watch:

UCONN:

Tristen Newton: First-team All-American, leads UCONN in scoring (15.3) and assists (6.2) per game.

Cam Spencer: Second in scoring (14.4), shooting 44.0% on 3-pointers (ranks fifth nationally).

San Diego State:

Jaedon LeDee: Consistent scorer, averaging 21.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.

Darrion Trammell: Adds offensive firepower with 18 points per game.

Key Matchups:

UCONN’s Defense vs. San Diego State’s Offense:

UCONN gives up just 63.9 points per game, leading the Big East.

San Diego State relies on offensive rebounds; UCONN’s ability to limit second-chance points will be crucial.

Tristen Newton vs. San Diego State’s Defense:

Newton’s scoring and playmaking are vital for UCONN to win this game by double-digits and do see  San Diego State containing  and minimizing his impact in this game. UCONN may win and advance, but my predictive model sees this as a single-digit result.