Free Picks

Wednesday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Cubs +118

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Dodgers still have a lot to play for here down the stretch despite already basically locking up the NL West.  They are 1.5 games behind the Brewers for the #1 seed and 3 games ahead of the Braves for the #2 seed.  At the very least, they want to finish Top 2 to get that bye.

The Dodgers have clearly been playing with some urgency during their current 6-game winning streak.  They look to sweep the Reds, who are 69-76 on the season are completely out of contention.  But the biggest reason I'm on the Dodgers today is their massive advantage on the mound tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been one of the most reliable starters in baseball.  He is 12-8 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 25 starts this season with 19 of those being quality starts.  Yamamoto has owned the Reds, allowing one earned run in 13 2/3 innings with 18 K's in his last two starts against them for a 0.66 ERA.

Rhett Lowder is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 22 starts and three relief appearances this season.  Lowder has been very poor on the road, going 4-7 with a 6.79 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 13 starts away from home while allowing 44 earned runs in 58 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings with the Reds with seven wins by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

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1* Free Pick on Rams -3½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* MLB - Rockies/Yankees FREE PICK on Yankees -1.5 (-115) 

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:

1* on Cubs/Brewers UNDER 7.5

The Key: This is a rematch from September 3rd when the Cubs beat the Brewers 2-1 in an absolute pitcher's dual between Kevin Gausman and Logan Henderson.  The teams combined for just 3 runs on 8 hits.  Gausman yielded one ER in 7 innings with 9 strikeouts.  Henderson yielded 2 ER in 7 innings with 7 strikeouts and only 3 base runners allowed.  Henderson is 9-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 15 starts this year, and 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 7 home starts.  Take the UNDER.

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1* Free Wiseguy Play on Patriots +3 +100

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* Best Bet on Seahawks -3

No analysis provided.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #344 Syracuse Orange over California Golden Bears (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 12 ACC Network) Both teams have a game under their belt and we will follow the line movement in this game. Cal has a new coach and system and they fell apart last week in Berkely, being outscored 21-0 by UCLA to lose by 21 points. I do not have much confidence in this team and feel Ron Rivera is in over his head as general manager. Syracuse got some confidence last week destroying New Hampshire and they did win at Cal in 2024 in route to a 10 win season. I see them bouncing back this year and making a bowl game. They should be able to win this game by double digits. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays football, soccer, and tennis. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 55 years of handicapping experience work for you.

OVER 44.5

Seattle and New England have value to the over. These two teams met in the Super Bowl last season and they are going to put on another offensive show. Seattle will turn back to Sam Darnold, who has another big year in store. The Pats will have Drake Maye once again under center and they will return a lot of similar faces on both sides of the ball. Expect this game to be high scoring once again. Back the over. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Wednesday FREE NFL O/U Play

50-36 NFL sides run! 410-351 54% +2337 since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. A BIG 5× Play Week 1 NFL Card going up, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Forty-four and a half is a quiet number until you remember who is walking into NRG on Sunday. Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 Eastern, Week 1, a pick’em dressed up like a heavyweight and a total that already admits this should look like 24-17, not 31-28. The public hears Josh Allen and starts adding touchdowns. The board heard Houston’s front and hung 44.5 like it meant it.

Last year the Bills went 12-5 and scored 481 points, 28.3 a night, tied for fourth in the league. That tape is real. So is a road opener in a building that has treated Allen like a tourist. Including the postseason he is 1-4 against this franchise with a 55.4 percent completion rate. That is not a curse you put on a poster. That is a completion percentage that lives in the 200s and a lot of third-and-long. Houston went 12-5 as well. The Texans were 7-11-1 to the total. Buffalo was 10-8-1. One of those clubs already knew how to keep a Sunday from turning into a track meet.

Week 1 is not January. First real snaps, first real crowd, first real script that has not been stress-tested since the spring. Openers lean under for a reason. Coaches call it safe. Quarterbacks check it down. Clock becomes the whole ticket. A 23-17 Texans win cashes 44.5 in its sleep. A 24-20 Bills win cashes. A 27-13 still has a pulse. The scores that beat it are the ones where both quarterbacks start slinging it in the fourth quarter of an opener because somebody panicked. That is not how this spot usually ages, and it is not how NRG usually ages when Buffalo is in town.

You do not need a defensive struggle that looks like 9-6. You need this to stay out of a late auction. Allen can still be the best player on the field and the under still gets paid. Stroud can still look like a franchise and the under still gets paid. The number is not asking you to fade talent. It is asking you to fade rust plus a Houston defense that does not need permission to hit.

Pertinent ledger from last season, the kind that lives on a football reference page if you want to stare at it: Bills 481 points in 17 games, 28.3 a night, 12-5, 19 giveaways. Texans 12-5, 12 giveaways, second-fewest in the league. Combined that is two grown clubs, not a cupcake and a bully. Combined they were not a 50-point problem every Sunday. Houston’s total record already told you that. Buffalo’s scoring average is the trap. People take 28.3, add a home dome, and forget that 28.3 was earned across a year, not on the first Sunday in somebody else’s building.

The public will smash Allen props and the over because the logo travels and the quarterback sells tickets. Let them. A 220-yard Allen night and a 210-yard Stroud night with a couple of field goals is an honest opener. James Cook can still eat and the total can still sit down. The ticket is not “nobody scores.” The ticket is “nobody turns this into a shootout before the rust comes off.”

Sit on 44.5. If the number drips to 43.5 it gets cleaner. If they hang 46.5, the edge is thinner and you can live without it. Sunday’s ticket is the under, not the chalk, not the revenge poster, not the first-game narrative that always sounds smarter on Saturday night.

Bet under the total in Week 1 games posted 45.5 or lower.

The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 12-7 (63.2%) with an average over/under of 43.8. (+4.1 units, ROI=19.7%)

Bet under the total in Bills road games against a 12-win defense.

That spot since 2023: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average over/under of 46.1. (+3.5 units, ROI=31.8%)

Bet under 45 in Week 1 games that open as a pick’em or inside a field goal.

That spot since 2024: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average over/under of 44.2. (+3.4 units, ROI=22.1%)

Bet under the total when Josh Allen plays in Houston.

That spot since 2022: 4-1 (80.0%) with an average over/under of 46.8. (+2.7 units, ROI=49.1%)

Confirm the number is still 44.5 closer to kick. Confirm both clubs are still listing the names you expect. Then take the under and let everybody else argue about a one-point spread in Week 1. Enjoy the early window. Bet the total. Let the logos yell at each other while the clock does the work.

Player Prop bets :Josh Allen’s passing line is sitting around 221.5. Take the under. He can still win the game and live in the 190s if Houston’s front gets him off schedule.

C.J. Stroud is around 218.5 passing yards. Same lean. Under. A home opener against Buffalo does not require 250. It requires 205 and a couple of scores.

Allen under 1.5 passing touchdowns is the other quarterback ticket. One through the air and a field-goal night is an honest road opener in this building.

James Cook around 73.5 rushing yards is the over that still fits the under. If this stays on the ground, he eats clock and the total still cashes.

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We saw considerable regression from the Buccaneers down the stretch last season as they ultimately missed the playoffs after having it set up on a platter for them in the down-trodden NFC South. So obviously Tampa Bay has a chip on its shoulder entering the 2026 campaign but I'm not sure that will make a lick of difference. I think we're going to see the Bucs get involved in their share of shootouts again this year and in the season opener, that suits Cincinnati just fine. The Bengals finally have QB Joe Burrow healthy to start a season and he has all the weapons around him he needs to take his team on a 'Super Bowl of bust' type of run this year. The big news is that Cincinnati finally made some moves to bolster its much-maligned defense. I think the Bengals defense is well-positioned to come up with the splash plays needed to ultimately pull away in this particular contest. Bettors are hesitant to back the Bengals in Week 1 given their early season futility in recent years. I think this is a team with a fresh outlook, however, and one that brings a lot of optimism into its home opener. Take Cincinnati (8*).

Our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers to defeat the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday at 10:10pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Cincinnati will start Rhett Lowder -- He is 4-7 with an awful 6.79 earned run average in road games this season.

The Reds are just 41-59 against opponents within the National League this year after losing the first two games of this series.

Los Angeles will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- He has an earned run average of 2.67 and a whip of 0.90 this year.

The Dodgers seem to be clicking on all cylinders right now, winning six games in a row.

They are now 46-28 in games played at home.

The play is on the Dodgers.

Cubs vs Brewers MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Milwaukee turns to right-hander Logan Henderson (9-3, 2.48 ERA), who continues his breakout campaign as one of the most reliable arms in the National League. Henderson has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts and sports a minuscule 0.79 WHIP, consistently limiting traffic on the base paths. The Brewers have been exceptionally dominant with Henderson on the bump, winning 8 of his 11 starts when installed as moneyline favorites.

The Cubs turn to veteran righty Kevin Gausman (9-11, 4.38 ERA), who continues to navigate an inconsistent campaign. While Gausman turned in a quality start against Milwaukee last week, his elevated 4.38 ERA and .255 opponent batting average reflect broader underlying vulnerabilities that have plagued him on the road. In fact, the Cubs have dropped seven of Gausman's nine starts this season when taking the field as moneyline underdogs.

The Bet: Brewers (3%). 

1% GOLD RUSH on 49ers +4