#744 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -14.5 over Fresno State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. We’re getting a very good team at home and coming off a tight loss @ San Diego State 83-79. That pushed SDSU to the top of the MWC with a 7-0 record while New Mexico, the 2nd highest rated team in the conference, dropped to 5-2. The Lobos bounced back nicely after their first MWC loss to beat Wyoming by 20 points at home and we see a similar result for tonight. They are a perfect 3-0 at home in league play with their wins coming 23, 23, and 20 points and 2 of those wins were vs top 100 teams (Wyoming & Grand Canyon). Their opponent tonight, Fresno State, ranks 139th and is the 3rd worst team in the conference per KenPom’s power ratings. The Bulldogs are coming off back to back home wins as underdogs vs Wyoming and CSU and this could be a tough spot for them. They are 1-4 on the road this season with their only win coming vs San Jose State who is the 2nd worst team in the MWC. The Dogs are not a great shooting team including from deep where they make just 31% of their triples (303rd in the country). This is a bad match up vs an athletic, high level defense in New Mexico. The Lobos rank 29th in defensive efficiency, 51st in eFG% allowed, 18th in 3 point FG% allowed and 22nd in scoring defense allowing just 67 PPG & only 63 PPG at home. Fresno also turns the ball over a lot at almost 20% (313th) and they are up against it tonight as NM creates turnovers at a high rate (20%). That should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Lobos. The closest comparison to New Mexico defensively in the conference would be San Diego State and Fresno scored only 52 points, lost that game by 19 points (trailed by 29 in the 2nd half) and coughed the ball up at a 23% rate. The last 2 years here at the Pit, New Mexico was favored by 21 and 17 points vs Fresno State and won those games by 28 and 21 points respectively. Now we’re getting them at a much lower number. New Mexico rolls in this game.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Tulsa -5.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Tulsa (3-2 in the AAC) sits one game behind Memphis (4-1) so they can ill afford to lose this game at home. Tulsa is 15-3 overall and despite their 2 conference losses they rank as the best team in the AAC per KenPom (62nd nationally) by quite a wide margin (18 spots higher than 2nd best team South Florida). 2 of their 3 losses have come by 5 points or less. The Golden Hurricanes are one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 10th in eFG% and 2nd in the country from beyond the arc making just over 41%. They are in the top 35 in scoring putting up 88 PPG and at home that number jumps to 97 PPG. Let’s not leave out the FT line as Memphis fouls a lot (22% of opponents points come from the charity stripe) and Tulsa makes 79% of their freebies compared to 68% for the Tigers. Memphis is a poor offensive team this season ranking 250th in eFG% and 213th in 3 point FG%. They also turn the ball over at a very high rate of 20% (337th in the country). The Tigers defense has been very solid this year but their defensive road numbers have dropped off a cliff compared to their home numbers. They allow opponents to shoot just 37% at home and that number rises to 46% in their road games. Their 3 point defense at home allows just 24% however on the road that jumps to almost 37%. Not great facing one of the best shooting teams in the country. Lastly, scoring wise Memphis allows 67 PPG at home on 0.90 PPP and 80 PPG on the road on 1.12 PPP. The Tigers are just 1-6 in their games away from home this year (road & neutral) with their only win coming by 6 points @ Rice who ranks as the 3rd worst team in the conference. This is a game Tulsa has been waiting for as they’ve lost 5 straight vs Memphis with their last win coming in 2021. Even though Memphis had much higher rated teams than they do now for those 5 games, 3 of them were decided by 3 points or less. Tulsa is the better team this year and we’ll lay it.

#745 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +8.5 over Texas A&M, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We were on A&M on Saturday and picked up a win as they upended Texas on the road as as an underdog. Coming off that win we think this is a solid spot to fade the Aggies. They sit at 4-1 in the SEC but haven’t been able to run away from anyone as all 5 of their conference games have been decided by 7 points or less. We love taking a strong look at the Aggies as an underdog but we’re staying away as a hefty favorite. They are a bit overvalued right now as they sit in 2nd place in the SEC yet KenPom has them ranked as the 9th best team in the league. On the other end, we’re getting MSU at the bottom of the market with some line value in this game. They’ve lost 3 in a row after winning 6 straight prior to that. The Bulldogs are now backed into a corner and in must win mode so we expect their best effort tonight. They actually match up well with A&M as the Aggies thrive on creating turnovers (1st in the SEC) and MSU is solid at protecting the ball (4th in the SEC on offensive turnover rate). We also look for the Dogs to control the boards as the Aggies are one of the worst rebounding teams in the SEC (last in defensive rebounding and 12th in offensive rebounding in conference play). Lastly, A&M’s offense relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with over 50% of their shot attempts in SEC play coming from deep. Mississippi State just happens to be the best 3 point defense in the league allowing just 27% shooting from beyond the arc. MSU has already shown they have the ability to get it done on the road in conference play beating Texas a few weeks ago. Like all Aggie SEC games, we think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.

Champions League #224241/224242 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-105) – Atletico Madrid at Galatasaray, Wednesday at 12:45 pm ET - Look for a rather wide-open match here.  Galatasaray is off a 1-1 home draw but in their other recent home matches they have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 4 in their home stadium.  Atletico Madrid has scored an average of 2 goals in their last 8 matches.  All 6 Champions League matches for Atletico Madrid have totaled at least 3 goals and 5 of the 6 reached at least the 4-goal mark.  Galatasaray has trended under in Champions League matches in this term but is generally known for scoring well at home and they are the type of club that is built well in terms of being able to counter Atletico Madrid here.  We look for a 3-2 or at least 3-1 final when all is said and done in this one. Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty here and why we have no hesitation in grabbing this total and laying minimal juice with the over at 3 goals!   

ASA NBA play on UNDER 226.5 Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:40 pm ET - Both teams are beat up right now with several key players less than 100%. OKC’s injury list includes Caruso, Williams, Hartenstein, and the 'other' J. Williams. The Bucks current injury report includes Turner, Porter Jr and Giannis is on a minutes restriction. The Bucks defense isn’t what it should be considering this roster but they still have the 12th best FG% defense in the league. The Thunder have the best defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing 1.068 points per possession and the #1 FG% D in the NBA. OKC is average in terms of pace of play and the Bucks are much slower at 98.4 possessions per game which ranks 22nd. Last season these two teams met 3 times with the UNDER going 3-0 and those three games averaged just over 208 total points per game. Injuries, tempo and defense have us on the UNDER in this one.