*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies and Washington State Cougars meet on Friday night. These teams are 127th and 136th in offensive success rate. Utah State is averaging 13.3 points per game. Washington State is averaging just 11.8 points per game. These are two of the worst offenses in the country.

Washington State is 136th in PPA/pass. They are 125th in red zone offense. They rarely get to the red zone and when they do they have been terrible at turning it into points. They have hit some big plays in the run game, but Utah State is 10th in preventing explosive plays.

Utah State is 135th in red zone offense. They are just 123rd in offensive explosiveness as well. They have been able to run in some games, but the Washington State defense is better against the run than the pass. 

These are two really poor offenses and though this total is low, I don't think it is low enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wyoming is a run heavy offense that plays at a very slow pace. The Cowboys have played five games. The total points in those games 48 (against Colorado State who has been an over machine), 34, 34, 37, and 28 points. Wyoming's offense has had zero explosiveness. They have to methodically move it down the field and they will be running the football early and often.

San Jose State isn't the high flying over team they were the last couple years. San Jose State could only muster 20 points against Hawaii and 10 against Fresno State. The Spartans are poor at finishing drives.

This projects as a sloppy game with two offenses struggling to put it in the end zone. I think both will settle for field goals.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 42. Thanks and good luck!*

*3 Star Play Under* The Chattanooga Mocs are a defensive based team. They are 7th in FCS football in total defense. Chattanooga has allowed 7, 8, and 14 points in their last three games. Five of their six games this year have finished with 39 points or less.

Samford is a team that struggles to score. They have scored 19 points or fewer in all but one game (against lowly VMI). 

Both teams play at slow pace.

The weather here calls for rain showers and winds of 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. I think this would have been a pretty good under without the weather, but the weather makes it especially valuable.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Charleston Southern is a very run heavy offense that chews up the clock as much as possible. South Carolina State has the #2 ranked run defense in all of FCS football. They are likely to make things tough for the Charleston Southern run game.

SC State is more of a balanced offense, but the conditions should hurt them from being as explosive as normal.

There is heavy rain in the forecast here with sustained winds in the 16 mph range and gusts to 30 mph. 

Charleston Southern's games have finished regulation with 31, 37, 26, and 27 points against other FCS opponents this year.

The weather is nice bonus too.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 39 points. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks start Dylan Raiola here at quarterback. He's a bit of a downgrade from Dante Moore when it comes to upside, but Moore really hadn't played very well so far this season. Raiola knows the offense well, and he certainly has a bunch of talent around him to help him succeed here. 

UCLA is really well coached by Bob Chesney. The Bruins running game has been elite this year. Knight and Woods are an elite tailback tandem. The Bruins are first nationally in YPC, rushing success rate, and PPA/rush. Oregon's run defense is just 76th in PPA/rush allowed. Look for the Bruins to gain a lot on the ground here. 

The UCLA defense hasn't played many good offenses. They gave up 24 points to a very mediocre Cal offense. They allowed 38 points and 8.3 yards per play to Purdue in a 52-38 win.

Oregon will play with pace, and I think the move down here in the total has created an opportunity.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels defense was challenged by head coach Pete Golding after last game. He said every single players job is on the line. They had a bye week last week so they had a bunch of time to prepare for this game.

Ole Miss gets Lacy back and I think they will be fairly run heavy here. Vanderbilt's defense isn't elite, but they are pretty good at preventing explosives. 

This game is likely to be a weather game with the hurricane on the way. A blend of three forecasts calls for sustained winds of 20 mph and gusts to 40 mph. Rain will be on the increase during the game. 

A total set this high in this kind of weather is a play to the under for me.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets host the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday. The forecasts are coming together now that this looks like a pretty ugly weather game. I leaned to the under even without the rain and wind so that is a nice bonus.

The blend of three major forecasts calls for 19 mph sustained winds and gusts to 35 mph. There is rain expected here and the rain could be heavy at times during the game.

I think that makes both teams less explosive on offense than they normally are. They will be more predictable and won't be able to take shots down the field.

Duke's defense has really turned things around this year. They are 5th in PPA/rush allowed and 7th in YPC allowed. 

Georgia Tech is coming off a terrible performance at Stanford, and Brent Key has been good at getting his teams up for games as an underdog.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 45.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have a great team identity. They are strong in the trenches. They are going to slow the game down and be extremely physical. North Dakota State has seen 4 of its 5 games finish at 41 points or lower.

UNLV has only had one game go above 50 points this season. The Rebels are playing at an average pace. North Dakota State is bottom 15 in the country in pace of play.

North Dakota State is going to run the ball early and often. I think they'll get the lead and control the time of possession and slow this game down to a crawl.

UNLV has been disappointing on offense. N Dakota State is 4th in PPA/pass allowed and 4th in PPA/rush allowed so far this season. North Dakota State is second nationally in points per scoring opportunity allowed. They are elite in the red zone on defense.

Take the under here. 

(I would play this as low as 46. Thanks and good luck)

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons are averaging 11 points per game this season. Bowling Green is bottom ten in tempo nationally. 

Sacramento State is averaging 9 points per game. The Hornets haven't been able to do anything on offense until the games get to garbage time. They play at an average pace.

Both teams like to run the football early and often. 

I would expect a conservative game plan from both teams. These two teams haven't shown anything offensively and I think this will be a sloppy game.

Take the under.  

*I would play this for 4 stars to 44 and for 3 stars down to 42.5*