My MLB pick for Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians on Saturday sees Texas favored to win despite hosting for several reasons. The home field and price is the biggest of those reasons. Texas isn’t nearly as big at Globe Life Field as Cleveland is in most places, and this tilts closer to a pick’em type of matchup as the Rangers. Home playable value in a game where the pitching matchup leans neither way heavily is huge for me. Cleveland trotts out Tanner Bibee who is 0-7 with a 4.57 ERA, while Texas has Jack Leiter going who is 3-4 with a 4.34 ERA. The Rangers starter also has better swing-and-miss upside having punched out 74 hitters in just 66.1 innings.

The Rangers also play with confidence coming off Friday’s 3-2 victory over Cleveland that saw Corey Seager return from the injured list and smash the go-ahead two-run homer. Corey Seager returning healthy and able to hit is massive for the Texas lineup because it gives them yet another potent left-handed bat to throw at opposing pitchers alongside Josh Jung, Jake Burger and their powerful middle of the order. Texas is winning six out of their last seven games while Cleveland has lost four of six, so even the recent form favors the Rangers.

Make Bibee work early is how Texas strikes first. His record is atrocious for a reason as he’s already allowed 13 homers this year and that plays heavily into play when you’re pitching in a homer-friendly stadium. One pitch can change the game here. If Leiter can keep Cleveland from stringing together at least one crooked inning and Texas can put men on base for Seager, Jung and Burger to work with, then the Rangers have the clear advantage in backing themselves again.

Jim's Play : 924. Rangers

I'll be taking the Golden State Valkyries here on the road Saturday at the Las Vegas Aces.  The Valkyries getting small points on the road and that tells me that the oddsmaker giving Golden State some respect against the defending WNBA Champions.  The Aces are 6-3, but still haven’t won at home this season. Meanwhile Golden State comes in at 6-4 with tangible proof that it can compete with elite teams already this season.

Golden State also checks the boxes as an underdog thanks to its defensive profile and team balance. They almost beat Minnesota last game, pushing the Lynx to the limit in a 87-84 road loss. Cecilia Zandalasini even had a wide-open look at a game tying three at the buzzer. This isn’t some garden-variety road win against a bad team, Minnesota has been one of the WNBA’s best teams all season long, and Golden State showed they can hang with the best of them on the road.

Las Vegas has its own superstar in A’ja Wilson, who posted a 25-point, 15-rebound, five-block line in Vegas’ win over the Sparks last game, but the Aces are banged up in the backcourt. Jewell Loyd, Chennedy Carter and Dana Evans will all be sidelined for this one, which could hurt Las Vegas’ guard depth and ability to create shots late in games.

Rebounding will be key for this game. Las Vegas is vastly superior on the glass, but if Golden State can keep the margin manageable and force Las Vegas into difficult half-court offense, they can keep the score within two possessions. Take the points with Golden State’s defensive scheme, recent track record of competitiveness against good teams, and the Aces’ lingering guard injuries.

Jim's Play: 649. Golden State Valkyries