ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -3.5 vs. Golden State Valkyries, 9:30 pm ET - The Aces are backed into a corner and will come out with an inspired effort in Game 3 tonight. The Valkyries are up 2-0 after two tight wins to open this series. Prior to the playoffs the Aces had beaten Golden State 6 straight times which includes a 5-point and 19-point win at home this season. Las Vegas is 11-4 SU this season when coming off a loss with an average +/- of plus +7.5ppg. Dating back to 2024, the Aces are 33-14 SU, +6.0ppg when coming off a beat. Since the start of last season the Aces are 40-13 SU on their home court +5.9ppg. Las Vegas MVP Wilson has not played up to her expectations and we are betting she and Jackie Young step up tonight in this elimination game. The Valkyries have been great on the road this season but the pressure and moment may be too big for this young roster. Golden State has the advantage defensively, but the Aces have the edge offensively with the 2nd best offensive rating compared to the Valkyries 7th. LV is the 2nd best shooting team at 48.2%, GST is 15th or last in the league at 42.2%. Golden State is one bad shooting game from getting blown out here. Lay it with the Aces.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -2.5 vs. Atlanta Dream, 7:30 pm ET - I will be the first to admit the Liberty have been one team that has cost us a lot of money this season when we’ve bet on them. This is one situation we can’t ignore though and will back them at home as a small favorite. In Game 1 the Dream dominated at home in a 10-point win. In Game 2 it was tight with the Dream winning in OT by 3-points. Atlanta didn’t look comfortable down the stretch of regulation and then celebrated like they just won the title after their win. New York is obviously a veteran team with a Championship pedigree and we like them to bounce back here at home in a must win situation. NY is 29-18 SU when coming off a loss since 2024 with an average +/- in those games of +2.3ppg. They also have a 54-19 SU record at home since 2024 with an average scoring differential of +6.7ppg. When playing at home and off a loss this season the Liberty are 6-3 SU. We are not ignoring the Dream’s 9 game winning streak which includes 4 wins over this Liberty team or their road record, but given the circumstance we don’t see them bringing their ‘A’ game here with a 2-0 lead in the series. Atlanta has only been a road dog twice this season going 1-1 SU. The line on this game is lighter than it should be as we have the Liberty favored by -4.5 so let’s grab the value with New York.

#320 ASA PLAY ON Washington -2.5 over Iowa, Friday at 9 PM ET - This is just a terrible situational spot for Iowa who is coming off a last second win @ Michigan 2 weeks ago and then they played host to Ohio State last Saturday with ESPN Gameday on campus for the first time in 20 years. After those 2 huge games they have to make the long travel to the Pacific Northwest for the first game ever @ Washington. Their 20-19 win 2 weeks ago @ Michigan came with an Iowa 14 yard TD pass on the final play of the game. The Hawkeyes were dominated statistically in that win getting outgained 429 to 285 and 6.3 YPP to 4.8 YPP. Iowa had a 100 yard kickoff return in the game which was the difference. Their defense allowing 429 yards to a shaky Michigan offense raised some eyebrows. That same Wolverine offense turned around vs Minnesota last week and tallied only 180 total yards. Last week the Hawkeyes were blasted at home by Ohio State and outgained 484 to 238. Their defense could be a bit gassed here as they were on the field for 35 minutes @ Michigan and almost 40 minutes last week vs the Buckeyes. Their already suspect offense could be without starting QB Browne who has been very limited in practice this week. Iowa has scored 20 points or less in 3 of their 4 FBS games and they are facing a very good Washington defense that got some key pieces back from injury last week. They held a potent USC offense to a season low 360 yards and just 18 offensive points last week. The Trojans did have a 48 yard fumble return for a TD which turned out to be the difference in the 25-21 USC win. The Huskies actually outgained USC 5.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP in that loss. They are now back home and in a must win spot after starting 0-2 in the Big 10 with 3 of their next 4 on the road. Let’s take Washington on Friday night.

Spanish La Liga: #201826 ASA PLAY ON Malaga Goal Line PK +105 over Espanyol, Friday at 3 pm et – Espanyol has dominated the recent series history between these clubs but they have not met since they were both in Liga 2 and met each other 5 years ago.  We feel the pricing on this match is indicative of what to expect here.  This match is essentially evenly priced all the way through even though Espanyol has held the upper hand in the series history between these clubs.  That being said, the way this line has been set is very telling and we like Malaga at home in this one.  Malaga has scored in 2 of their 3 home matches and they only have lost one match at home so far this season as the other two games were draws.  They have allowed 1 goal or less in 4 of their last 6 matches.  Espanyol, on the other hand, has allowed multiple goals in B2B matches and 4 of their 6 matches so far in the La Liga season.  A draw is a push for our bet here so we like the line value in this one and though a draw does not hurt us, we absolutely do expect the home team to come out on top and cash this ticket early Friday.  The bet here is Malaga on the goal line at PK +105.

English Premier League #200022 ASA PLAY ON Manchester United Money Line -135 over Tottenham, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET - Tottenham is off a match, before the international break, in which they scored 2 goals but they still lost and it has been a dreadful start to the Premier League season for the Hotspur. In fact, prior to that 3-2 home loss, they had been outscored 5-0 in their first 4 matches. That's right, Tottenham did not even score a single goal in their first 4 matches this season. While it is also true that Manchester United has had its own set of struggles, at least they already scored 8 goals on the season. We like them in this spot as the money line price is reasonable and, like Tottenham, their backs are against the wall. However, unlike Tottenham, Manchester United is at home here and they have been scoring goals with a fair amount of consistency. In fact, in their last 6 matches across all types of competitions (including Premier League), Manchester United has scored an average of 2.3 goals per match. We don't see the Hotspur scoring enough on the road here to be able to keep up. We like Man U in a 3-1, or at least 2-1, final. We will lay the very reasonable price with Manchester United on the money line in this one.

#349 ASA PLAY ON LSU -8 over Kentucky, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Our power rating have LSU favored north of 10 points so we like the value here. We also like the spot. The Tigers played an FCS opponent last week cruising to a 63-14 win over McNeese State and they were able to rest some players in the 2nd half after building a 35-0 halftime lead. Not a stressful or overly physical game for LSU and their defense was only on the field for 22 minutes. Kentucky, on the other hand, had a game @ South Carolina in which they got down 17-0 and battled back for a 35-34 win in OT. The Cats were quite fortunate in that win (we were on South Carolina) as they were outgained 6.2 YPP to 5.0 YPP but benefitted from 2 Gamecock turnovers (0 for Kentucky) which led directly to 10 UK points. The one comparable team (power rating wise) to LSU that the Wildcats have faced was Alabama and they lost that game 45-17 at home. They were outgained by 2.1 YPP in that game and scored only 1 offensive TD (they had a pick 6 for the other TD). Now Kentucky is facing a team that is every bit as good as Bama but LSU has a better defense. The Tigers stop unit ranks 2nd in the nation in YPG allowed and YPP allowed and in their 4 games vs FBS opponents they held 3 of those offenses to 3.3 YPP or less. The only offense that topped that was Ole Miss but LSU still held the Rebels nearly a full 1.0 YPP below their season average. If Kentucky struggled with Alabama’s defense, they’ll have more problems here. On the other end, LSU’s offense ranks in the top 10 in YPG and they’ve scored at least 35 points in 4 of their 5 games. They’re facing a Kentucky defense that ranks 103 in defensive success rate and they are outside the top 100 in both passing and rushing success rate defensively. Weather could play a factor here with rain and wind possible but if it turns into a running type game, we like LSU as well in that situation. They are putting up 238 YPG rushing while on defense they allow just 58 YPG on the ground on 2.0 YPC. Kentucky has caught some breaks early in the season to get to 4-1 and ranked in the top 25 but LSU is the much better team. Tigers by double digits.

#327 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -7.5 over Nebraska, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Here we go with our yearly, early season Nebraska is back talk. The Huskers are 5-0 on the season but those wins have come against Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, Michigan State and Maryland (2 of the 3 worst teams in the Big 10). Last year the Huskers started 5-1 and then when they hit the meat of their schedule, finished 2-5 down the stretch. In 2024 the same scenario, start 5-1, close 2-5 when they start playing better teams. Nebraska’s going to have to prove it to us before we buy in. Last week they were on the ropes here at home down 23-14 late in the first half to a bad Maryland team. The Terps were moving for potential TD to make it 30-14 (or at worst 26-14) when Nebraska returned a pick six 81 yards for a TD. That changed the entire game so that final score with Nebraska winning 48-23 was definitely misleading. The YPP numbers were almost equal. Indiana hasn’t played a great schedule either but we trust this team under head coach Cignetti much more than the Nebraska team. The Hoosiers did beat what’s turning out to be a very solid Northwestern team 29-23 a few weeks ago but it should have been worse with almost 500 total yards to just 225 for the Cats. Another point on that game, Indiana was favored by 21 in that game vs Northwestern and we’re not so sure the Cats are just as good or possibly better than this Nebraska team and we’re only laying 7.5 here. While we don’t expect IU to be as good as they were last year when they won the National Championship, they are still very good and well coached. They rank in the top 8 nationally in both total offense YPP and total defense YPP. If this game would have been played to start the season, Indiana would have been favored by more than 10 points. The Huskers have been poor at home as a dog going 7-14 ATS in that role the last decade plus and they almost never pull upsets. They are 2-19 SU in those games as home when tabbed an underdog and they’ve lost 31 straight vs ranked opponents. We realize that Indiana has OSU on deck, however Cignetti won’t let them overlook a team that is undefeated on the season. We’ll believe when we see it Nebraska. Until then, we’ll roll with Indiana in this one.