Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks really profile as an OVER team scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 4.7 runs per game this season.  They have gone for 10 or more combined runs in five of their last six games overall, including 14 runs in Game 1 of this series with the San Francisco Giants.

Landen Roupp is 5-4 with a 3.49 ERA in nine starts for the Giants this season.  Roupp allowed 2 earned runs, one homer and 9 base runners in 4 innings of a 6-5 win at Arizona in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks.

Ryne Nelson is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in nine starts for the Diamondbacks this season while allowing 9 homers and 27 earned runs in 45 innings.  Nelson has been really bad at home, going 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in four home starts while allowing 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 2/3 innings.  

The OVER is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between the Diamondbacks and Giants.  They have combined for at least 9 runs in nine of their last 11 meetings in Arizona.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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20* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Braves/Marlins OVER 8

One of the best-kept secrets in baseball is that the Miami Marlins are 107-75 OVER in all home games over the last three seasons and 72-45 OVER as a home underdog.  This total of 8 is too short this afternoon.

The Braves have arguably the most potent offense in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  And they have been without their best hitter in Ronald Acuna Jr. for a couple weeks, but he makes his return to the lineup today.  The Marlins are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game this season.

35-year-old Martin Perez is due some major regression.  He is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA this season, but he is a contact pitcher who will get rocked by the Marlins today.  He allowed 2 homers to the Marlins in his last start against them.

Braxton Garrett is 16-20 with a 4.15 ERA in 64 career starts in the big leagues.  He has been forced into the rotation due to injuries, and he was rocked for 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 1 1/3 innings by the Twins in his first and only start this season.  HIs last start was all the way back in 2024.  Garrett allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 4 1/3 innings in a 14-6 loss to the Brave sin his last start against them.

The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between the Marlins and Braves with 9 or more combined runs in all six.  They have combined for at least 8 runs in nine of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Blue Jays and Yankees tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Blue Jays and Yankees with 11 or more combined runs in four of those five games.  These teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1 yesterday, and it should be more of the same tonight.

The Yankees have one of the best lineups in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  They have been much better at home scoring 6.6 runs per game at Yankee Stadium.  I trust they will get to Dylan Cease, who is 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 32 innings.

Will Warren comes in scuffling allowing 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles and Rangers.  Warren was rocked for 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 14 base runners in 4 innings of an 11-9 loss to the Blue Jays in his lone career start against them, which came last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Mets/Nationals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Mets and Nationals tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Washington DC.

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 30-15-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.9 runs per game.  They just went for 14, 15 and 16 combined runs with the Reds in their three games series, and 16 combined runs with the Orioles in Game 2 and 10 combined runs in Game 3 last series.  They went for 23 combined runs with the Mets last night.  So they have gone for 10 or more combined runs in six of their last seven games, and this total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.

The Mets are 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They are getting healthier and heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in five of those seven games.  They are averaging 7.6 runs per game in those seven games.  Both bullpens are taxed tonight after going 12 innings last night.

Nolan McClean and Foster Griffin are both getting too much respect here with this total of 8.5.  Both are due some regression, and both will likely struggle given the favorable forecast for hitters tonight.  The Nationals have a 5.09 ERA as a bullpen and the Mets have good numbers, but they won't have many of their best arms available tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Phillies OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Reds and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia.

The Reds are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 9 or more combined runs in all seven games.  They have scored a total of 44 runs in those seven games and are red hot at the plate right now, scoring 6.3 runs per game.  The Phillies are also hot at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in 14 of their last 24 games overall.

Chase Burns is due some regression after opening 5-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in nine starts for the Reds this season.  But he has allowed 6 homers this season, and this looks like one of his toughest tests yet.  He is backed by an awful Cincinnati bullpen with a 5.06 ERA this season.

Jesus Luzardo is 3-3 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Luzardo has been terrible at home, going 1-3 with an 8.65 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five starts while allowing 25 earned runs and 4 homers in 26 innings.  Luzardo allowed 6 runs, 5 earned, and 9 base runners in 2 innings of a 9-6 loss to the Reds in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Knicks Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +7.5

I backed the Spurs in Game 1 last night against the Thunder largely because I thought the Thunder would be rusty after having a week off.  It came to fruition as the Spurs led nearly wire to wire and pulled off the upset in double-OT.

The Knicks figure to be even more rusty than the Thunder.  They have had to sit around since their last game on May 10th to wait for the Cavs/Pistons series to get over in 7 games.  The extra rest couldn't have come at a worst time for the Knicks as they were playing their best basketball of the season going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

I also think the Knicks are now getting too much respect after that run against two overmatched teams in the Hawks and 76ers.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Cavaliers, a team that played them very tough in the regular season.  They lost by 2 and 8 in New York, while winning by 15 in their lone game in Cleveland.  That was also the only game since trading for James Harden, and the Cavs won by 15.

I normally would look to fade a team coming off a Game 7 like the Cavaliers.  But they made such easy work of the Pistons in a 125-94 win on Sunday that I think they'll still be very fresh for this Game 1 tonight.  I think that momentum from a Game 7 win on the road carries over into Game 1 at Madison Square Garden tonight.  

This series and specifically Game 1 is much closer than this 7.5-point spread would indicate.  The Cavs are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Knicks, so this is clearly a great matchup for them.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.